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2020 US Senate : Arizona

All States

Mark Kelly
Martha McSally

Etholytics Rating: Lean Blue

Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly
Etholytics Projection McSally (R) Kelly (D)
Projected Vote Share Members Only 
Projected Vote w/ Polling Members Only 
Chance to Win % Members Only 
Raw Model Vote Share Members Only 
Vote with 2016 Turnout Members Only 
Vote with 2018 Turnout Members Only 

Recent Polling

These are the most recent pubic polls available for this race. For adjustment for polling bias, check the Adjustment Leader column. The adjustment is made using historical polling from the given poll related to the specific state.

Martha McSally

Views: Center-Right

Age: 54

Party: Republican

Years In Office: 2

Previous Office: US House AZ-02

Biggest Endorsement: George W. Bush

Mark Kelly

Views: Center-Left

Age: 56

Party: Democrat

Years In Office: 0

Previous Office: None

Biggest Endorsement: Kamala Harris

DATE POLLSTER SAMPLE KELLY MCSALLY LEADER KELLY MCSALLY ADJUSTED LEADER
9/15-9/20 ABC News/WaPo 579 LV 49% 48% Kelly+1 Members Only 
9/11-9/16 NY Times/Siena 653 LV 50% 42% Kelly+8 Members Only 
9/11-9/15 Monmouth 420 LV 50% 46% Kelly+8 Members Only 
9/9-9/11 CBS News/YouGov 1106 LV 49 42 Kelly+7 47.3% 43.7% Kelly+3.6