Presidential Approval Ratings
2020 Senate Elections
2020 Presidential Elections
Toss
Up
Toss
Up
Toss
Up
Toss
Up
Toss
Up
Lean
Blue
Toss
Up
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | ||
Etholytics Projection | McSally (R) | Kelly (D) |
Projected Vote Share | Members Only ![]() |
|
Projected Vote w/ Polling | Members Only ![]() |
|
Chance to Win % | Members Only ![]() |
|
Raw Model Vote Share | Members Only ![]() |
|
Vote with 2016 Turnout | Members Only ![]() |
|
Vote with 2018 Turnout | Members Only ![]() |
These are the most recent pubic polls available for this race. For adjustment for polling bias, check the Adjustment Leader column. The adjustment is made using historical polling from the given poll related to the specific state.
Views: Center-Right
Age: 54
Party: Republican
Years In Office: 2
Previous Office: US House AZ-02
Biggest Endorsement: George W. Bush
Views: Center-Left
Age: 56
Party: Democrat
Years In Office: 0
Previous Office: None
Biggest Endorsement: Kamala Harris
DATE | POLLSTER | SAMPLE | KELLY | MCSALLY | LEADER | KELLY | MCSALLY | ADJUSTED LEADER |
9/15-9/20 | ABC News/WaPo | 579 LV | 49% | 48% | Kelly+1 | Members Only ![]() |
||
9/11-9/16 | NY Times/Siena | 653 LV | 50% | 42% | Kelly+8 | Members Only ![]() |
||
9/11-9/15 | Monmouth | 420 LV | 50% | 46% | Kelly+8 | Members Only ![]() |
||
9/9-9/11 | CBS News/YouGov | 1106 LV | 49 | 42 | Kelly+7 | 47.3% | 43.7% | Kelly+3.6 |