Presidential Approval Ratings
Direction of Country
2018 Senate Polls
If the Democrats take the House, they will be able to attack President Trump in the same way they are attacking Kavanaugh. With the power of the House behind them, they will be able to subpoena Trump, whether its justified or not, and make Trump's presidency a nightmare for Republicans.
Much like the article we did several days ago on which races the Republicans needed to win to keep the House, now we're going to look at which races the Democrats must win in order to take the House.
The Democrats need 23 seats at a minimum to claim the House back. Only once since WWII have the Republicans ever lost more than 23 seats in their first midterm- and it was 26 seats in 1982. Based on these odds, the Democrats would need something historic to take back the House.
If the Democrats get to number 23, 24, 25 districts flipped on their quest to take the House, these will probably be the three districts the Republicans need to win to block the Democrats from taking the House.
The evidence all points to Renacci getting much higher than 45%. If Mandel got 45% in a year where Obama was on the ticket and carried Ohio, and back when Ohio was much more left than it is today- then how could Renacci go less than 45%? He probably won't, and it's likely he's goes a few points higher than that.
What makes these rural Rust Belt seats, and perhaps the Rust Belt as a whole, dangerous for Democrats is that the Republicans are slowly beginning to take the economic issue advantage away from the Democrats in these working class areas. One word: Trade
The vote in Texas has stayed almost the exact same for decades. The reason for this is the Democrat often hits their ceiling right as the Republican is still at their floor.
In every single Senate primary this year, the main talking point by Republicans trying to win their primaries has been that they "stand with Trump". One candidate in the Indiana Senate primary, Todd Rokita (R-IN), went so far that he ran an ad of himself donning a MAGA hat